Showing posts with label Crude Oil Supply. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crude Oil Supply. Show all posts

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Crude Oil Supply - Labour Requirements



The jobs growth required by the cities of Fort McMurray and Edmonton are significant in order to reach the projected production targets and to satisfy the requirements of the pending oil sands projects.

This is a sample put forward by the Canadian National Energy Board to illustrate the demand that Alberta must face.

The problem is compounded by the fact that Fort McMurray is in a remote cold location and $100 oil has created a lot of jobs for skilled labour in the oil field services industry.

Crude Oil Supply - Upgrader Alley


This is the town of Fort McMurray that is located in the remote North Central Alberta. A decade ago the population was reaching 35,000.

The map shows the 1 lane (both directions) highway 63 that was built to service the town from Edmonton.









The highway sees an increasingly high volume of traffic due to the booming oilsands industry in Wood Buffalo, causing potentially serious transportation-related problems. Not surprisingly, many residents in Fort McMurray and others who frequently use the highway view this as an issue that needs to be dealt with in a timely manner. Trucks carrying large equipment can delay the traffic greatly, since they can be large enough to occupy two traffic lanes. Most of Highway 63 is two-lane undivided highway, with the exception of just a few kilometres south of and through Fort McMurray to roughly 25 km (15 miles) north of Fort McMurray. It is also the only all-weather road leading out of Fort McMurray, which makes it a critical link.



Crude Oil Supply - Transmission Capacity



Western Canada and the Western U.S. have vast potential to supply growing electricity markets in the Pacific Northwest and the U.S. Southwest with environmentally attractive, stable-priced electricity. Meanwhile, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) estimates demand for power in the region will grow by more than 26,000 megawatts (MW) by 2015.

TransCanada’s NorthernLights initiative proposes to connect these sources of low-cost and renewable supply to growing markets via long distance, High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission lines that maximize the use of existing and emerging energy infrastructure corridors and rights-of-way where practical.

The NorthernLights Project aims to connect Fort McMurray's transmission lines with the NorthWestern United States in order to have a place to send any excess generation capacity.


This NorthernLights consists of two major projects:

  • Three long distance, High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC)transmission lines Each line up to 3,000 MW and $1.5 to $2.0 Billion
  • Celilo Project Oil Sands cogeneration, wind, and other clean energy sources in Alberta and British Columbia

Crude Oil Supply - Forecasted Excess Cogeneration

The increased requirements for electricity to support the increased oil sands production will also produce an abundance of excess electricity.

TransCanada forecasts that the electricity will cause alot of congestion on the Alberta grid. Calgary and Edmonton do not provide enough load to use up any excess capacity. Therefore, there are many projects in development to link the transmission in Fort McMurray with other high load areas (California, Las Vegas, Seattle).

Crude Oil Supply - Natural Gas Demand

Energy Alberta Corporation calculated that Alberta would become a net importer of natural gas (5 bcf per day) if the proposed oil sands projects become a reality. The demand for natural gas for oil sands production is expected to increase by 300% by 2015. Oil sands production is forecasted to increase 4 fold by 2015 according to the Canadian National Energy Board.

Energy Alberta Corporation is a proposing to use nuclear technology to supply oil sands operators and Alberta with a stable glow of electricity, steam and hydrogen at the lowest cost.


Crude Oil Supply - SCO and Bitumen Supply Costs

Most of the crude bitumen that is produced will be upgraded to synthetic crude oil. The SCO would be sold to downstream refineries.

The analysis, conducted by the Canadian Energy Research Institute, of upgrading costs indicates that a mining project producing SCO in the Athabasca area would also need WTI prices of about US$25/b to be economic.

One of the key parameters for these analyses is the assumed natural gas prices, since these projects are very large natural gas consumers.

For their analysis, they assumed:

  • NYMEX natural gas price of US$4.25/MMBtu – this translates into a plant gate natural gas price of C$4.74/GJ (March 2, 2004 closing prices were US$5.565/MMBtu and C$5.98/GJ respectively)
  • Canada US exchange rate of 0.75 US$/C$ (March 1,2004 closing rate was 0.7448 US$/C$)
The costs of upgrading crude bitumen is estimated to be C$12.71/b

This is a summary, provided by the Canadian Energy Research Institute, of supply cost results for crude bitumen from Athabasca and Cold Lake. This bitumen has not been upgraded but can still be valued in the market as shown here.

Their analysis indicates that the oil sands industry requires West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices of about US$25 per barrel at Cushing, Oklahoma to cover all costs and earn an adequate return on investment. While current oil prices are much higher, many project proponents are basing their plans on prices in the midtwenties.

The difference between the plant gate price and the WTI price takes into account:

• Transportation costs to market
• The value of the bitumen in the market having regard for its high sulphur content and low API gravity.


Crude Oil Supply - Project Costs by Type

The majority of the proposed projects will be for projects related to open pit mining. This is surprising since the majority of the crude oil is projected to come from In Situ production methods (SAGD). In situ production is regarded as being more energy intensive due to the large amount of steam that needs to be produced inorder to extract the bitumen from the oil sands. However, the open pit mining requires more heavy machinery and labour.

Crude Oil Supply - Project Realization Probabilities


According to StrategyWest, 1/4 of all projects, that have been announced or disclosed to the public, will be actualized. The projects that will come to fruition will probably be delayed by 2 years.
The high rate of project terminations will significantly hamper Alberta's attempt to reach 5 million barrels per day.
The projects that have been disclosed and announced to the public account for production capabilities of 2 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil Supply - Status of projects to increase production


StrategyWest believes issued a report detailing the status of all current oil sands projects and their production potential. There is a slim amount currently under construction. These construction initiatives are taxing the materials, supply and labour capabilities of the Fort McMurray region. There is a significant amount of projects that are still pending at various stages that will compete for those supply, materials and labour costs.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Crude Oil Supply - Natural Gas Supply

Recent projections of natural gas supply indicate that total production from the WCSB is expected to
stay relatively flat, in the range of 16.5 to 17.0 Bcf/d until the 2010 to 2011 timeframe

Alternative sources of gas supply are postulated, such as increased CBM and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and, in the 2009 to 2013 timeframe, supplies from the North via the Mackenzie Valley and Alaska pipelines. If supply from these sources develops more slowly than projected, it is possible that tight gas market conditions might prevail over the next five to six year period or longer, until alternative supply can be delivered in sufficient quantity.

In order to reduce their exposure to gas prices, oil sands operators are actively seeking to reduce their dependence on natural gas, by increasing efficiency through improved energy management, and by researching and developing alternate sources of energy.

Crude Oil Supply - Natural Gas Costs per Barrel

The following chart created for the Alberta Chamber of Commerce technology roadmap, provides an estimate of energy costs for all facets of the value added chain with natural gas consumptions.

For recovery and full upgrading, and for full reliance on natural gas, costs for energy and hydrogen range from $5 to $8 per barrel.

Several oil sands companies have instituted energy efficiency into their operations in the form of cogeneration systems; the simultaneous production of electricity and thermal energy from a single facility (usually gas turbines with heat recovery steam generators). The electricity is used to meet project energy needs, such as operating mine machinery and in-situ well pumps, with excess electricity being supplied to the provincial grid. It is evident from the chart that cogeneration is a better balanced option for mining or upgrading; to generate sufficient steam via cogeneration for In-Situ production will result in a vast excess of power, with limited transmission facilities to handle it at this time.

Crude Oil Supply - Natural Gas Usage

High natural gas prices have encouraged oil sands operators to use gas more efficiently and to look for alternative fuels. The extent to which bitumen gasification or other alternatives to natural gas use prove successful and are adopted in additional operations will materially affect the purchased gas requirement in the oil sands.

The chart shows the approximate distribution of natural gas requirements for oil sands operators, and provides the basis for developing longer-term projections of natural gas demand for oil sands operations. The incremental future upgrading category is included to recognize that the demand for higher quality, cleaner SCO, and thus the demand for hydrogen in upgrading, will rise in the future.

Crude Oil Supply - Electricity Requirements








Electricity costs are expensive due to the remoteness of the oil sands. Most companies have developed their own cogeneration plants to supply electricity to their projects.

Due to the relatively weak demand for electricity by population of Alberta, oil sand development companies are unable to develop substantial amounts of surplus, because there is no where to put it on the grid.